Unintended Consequences - The Cost of Not Thinking Ahead 

An apocryphal story I came across last week…

During British rule in India, officials in Delhi were desperate to reduce the number of venomous cobras slithering around the city. Their solution seemed perfectly sensible: offer a bounty for every dead snake.

For a while, it looked like a triumph. Cobra numbers were falling. Rewards were being claimed. Job done.

Until… the claims suddenly skyrocketed.

It turned out that enterprising locals had started breeding cobras purely so they could kill them and collect the reward. When the government cancelled the scheme, the breeders simply released their now-worthless snakes. Delhi was left with more cobras than when the whole thing began.

Whilst it would be an amazing story if it were true, it’s a lovely way to highlight the law of unintended consequences. That’s when the action you take solves the problem in front of you, but quietly creates even bigger ones down the line.

It’s all too easy to do this when we run hard at a decision because the first-order logic makes perfect sense.

“We need more sales…”

“We need to move faster…”

“We need to motivate the team…”

But it’s rarely the first-order effect that hurts you.

It’s the second, third and fourth.

Push the sales team harder → discounts creep in → revenue climbs, margins collapse.

Rush a project out the door → everyone applauds the speed → then spend months fixing the avoidable issues.

Incentivise the wrong behaviour → the target gets hit → the point gets missed.

Bold leadership isn’t about moving quickly. It’s about thinking clearly before you move and finding ways to experiment and test before rolling decisions out. 

It’s about slowing down long enough to ask the questions most people skip.

Don’t confuse this with perfectionism! Where we put decisions off forever and a day.

A simple tool I like to use is the pre-mortem:

“If this has failed six months from now, what will have caused it?”

It forces you to see the hidden traps before you step in them.

It gives your bold ideas the foundations they deserve.

And it shifts you from “charging in” to choosing wisely.

Pair that with my favourite double-question — “Why?” and “Why not?” — and you’re mapping out the future landscape and understanding the nuance that sits around each decision.

So the real invitation this week is simple:

Slow down. Look further ahead.

And give your decisions the chance to succeed all the way through and not just on day one.

What’s one decision you’re sitting with right now that deserves a pre-mortem?

You Can’t Outsource Your Thinking

Everywhere you look right now, it’s all about AI. Automation. Streamlining process. More efficiencies. From the Government to the Private Sector to the Third Sector. The world is about speed. Quicker answers. Quicker results. The pressure to move, to react, to get to the next thing.

I fear that in our rush to go faster, we often forget the one thing that allows us to go further.

Thinking.

Anthropic has launched Keep Thinking, its first major brand campaign for Claude.

The Fastest Learner Wins

This summer, I’ve been chasing bass along the Devon coastline. 

Not just casting in the same spot with the same lure, but switching marks, different states of tide, trolling versus drifting, adjusting retrieve speeds, swapping colours and styles of lure.

Every change, whether it brought a hit or an empty line is a data point. The more loops I ran, the faster I learned what worked in that moment.

The Habit that Slipped

Have you ever had that thing where you do something, it works brilliantly… and then, over time, you forget to do it and it gradully slips out of your week?

Like going to the gym, journaling, flossing, setting aside proper time to think, or a host of other things?

It wasn’t an active decision to stop. It was as simple as life getting busy. Other things crowd in. And the habit that actually worked pretty well quietly disappears.

I had a reminder this week that at some point I mislaid along the way one of the most powerful routines I ever had…